• Isiah Pacheco shines in difficult situations: Pacheco has become one of the best running backs in the league against eight men in the box or when an offensive lineman struggles with their block.
• New opportunities without Jerick McKinnon: Pacheco won’t fully take McKinnon’s role, but there is the chance Pacheco sees more opportunities, particularly at the goal line.
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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
The player profile series gives the most in-depth view of a player possible using the best data points at PFF’s disposal to look at how good the player has performed, what competition the player has for touches, and how other teammates and coaches will impact each player's performance.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Saturday, July 13
Player performance
Pacheco was a seventh-round pick by the Chiefs in 2022. He ran the ball 12 times in Week 1 of his rookie season and by Week 7 he earned the starting job.
He put together a strong 2023. He’s not considered one of the best running backs in the league but certainly has earned the chance to remain the starter. He’s played particularly well in harder situations such as facing eight men in the box or non-perfectly blocked plays. He still performs well in relatively easy situations, just not as well compared to other running backs.
Pacheco hasn’t been the Chiefs' third-down back, but his increased role in 2023 came with more pass routes. He graded out relatively well compared to most running backs who have been two-down backs.
Competition for touches
The biggest reason for optimism for Pacheco is the Chiefs didn’t re-sign 32-year-old running back Jerick McKinnon, who had been the Chiefs' primary third down and two-minute drill back for the last two seasons. This included being a primary backup on early downs, particularly near the goal line. Those goal-line plays helped McKinnon to 13 receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons.
We can expect Clyde Edwards-Helaire to fill the void as the backup on early down snaps and short-yardage situations, but we could see Pacheco's snap count increase in other situations. Pacheco has only caught two touchdown passes in his career, and that number, in particular, should increase this season even if Edwards-Helaire takes the majority of the third-down snaps.
Expect a lot of hype in training camp for at least one of the undrafted rookies as one will likely be third on the depth chart, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will see regular playing time unless there is an injury. Edwards-Helaire’s snaps are in more danger than Pacheco’s.
Impact of teammates
While being one of the NFL's best offenses has its benefits, the Chiefs put a pretty large cap on Pacheco’s ceiling. The Chiefs pass more often than any other team given the situation. That is particularly true near the goal line. Ideally, the Chiefs would be running a lot more particularly when they have a lead, but we shouldn’t expect too much more than 15 carries per game from Pacheco.
The Chiefs retained their entire offensive line from last season outside of Donovan Smith, who is an unsigned free agent who recently turned 31 years old. The interior offensive line has been great while the tackles are better pass protectors than run blockers. There is a possibility we see some general improvement just from the consistency but even then, we’ve mentioned Pacheco is good at making the most of bad situations, so the line shouldn’t impact Pacheco as much as other runners.
Bottom line
Pacheco finished 14th in fantasy points per game last season and the departure of Jerick McKinnon has appropriately moved up a few spots by ADP. He probably doesn’t have a top-five upside unless he stays healthy and a lot of other good running backs miss a few games, but he’s also a lot safer than most of the running backs in his ADP range.
Footnotes
- Statistics for the tables and charts were generally chosen based on their ability to predict future fantasy performance on either per game or per opportunity basis, or chosen for their ability to describe the player relative to other players at the same position.
- Opportunities for this purpose are defined by passing dropbacks, rushing attempts and receiving routes run.
- Numbers are either by season or based on the last three years. For rookies, only college numbers are included. For non-rookies, only NFL numbers are included, even if they played in college in the last three years.
- Because college competition is relatively easier than NFL competition, it can be expected that most rookies will see a decline in their numbers compared to their historic numbers.
- For all of the tables in this article, colors range from blue (good or high) to red (bad or low).
- All percentiles or colors compare the given player to other players with a high sample of opportunities. Generally, it’s one-third of the possible opportunities given the sample. If the player in question doesn’t have enough opportunities, they are still compared, even though a player could look good or bad on that small sample size which might not be as predictive.
- Information on running back utilization classifications and importance can be found here, wide receiver here and tight end here.
